WILL BUSH GO TO WAR WITH IRAN?
By Jayran Mansouri (May 2006)
In the wake of 9/11, the world has become a much more terrorism-aware place. All of a sudden, it was revealed that the USA was not infallible, Al Quaeda were on the loose, and that terrorism was more likely to occur than we may realise.
Then, the United States declared war on terror. This has been, and will continue to be, a controversial issue with Muslims as well as other people.
Recently, many people have been saying that Bush will nuclear-bomb Iran.
So how likely is Bush to go to war with Iran? How would a war with Iran be justified - or not justified? What are the possibilities of nuclear weapons being used? Are there any peaceful alternatives to a war on Iran?
How likely is Bush to go to war with Iran?
Very, very likely indeed. In fact, it is almost no longer a question of will Bush declare war on Iran, but a question of when.
Most people are of the belief that Bush will go to war with Iran. This is mainly because Iran has allegedly got nuclear weapons, and it is not permitted by the United Nation’s policies.
Basically, a war with Iran is all but confirmed.
How would a war on Iran be justified or not justified?
Justified:
The primary reason Bush is considering war with Iran is that Iran has nuclear weapons, or is on the way to making them anyway. Another goal would be changing the regime.
However, while it is almost certain that Iran will develop nuclear weapons, it is not as close as it may seem. This is because the media misquoted the percentage of uranium that was enriched, making it seem higher.
Which means that Iran using the uranium to make nuclear weapons is not as likely as it seems.
But if Iran becomes a nuclear state, then what has happened to MAD?
Not Justified:
MAD stands for Mutually Assured Destruction. The deal is like this: Assume two states have some nuclear weapons. Neither will think of attacking the other, even if they disagree on certain issues, because if they do attack, then the other state will strike back with a nuclear weapon of their own. Then both sides will be annihilated. See the entry for MAD in Wikipedia)
If Bush does go to war with Iran, a disastrous nuclear war will ensue, where millions of innocent lives could be lost.
What are the possibilities of nuclear weapons being used?
Very high. In fact, one article states that Bush is specifically “planning nuclear strike against Iran” (See the article ‘Bush “planning nuclear strike against Iran’ in the NZ Herald on 10.04.06) )
However, my main concern is that the use of nuclear weapons will cause extreme death and destruction.
The last time a nuclear weapon was used it was 1945, towards the end of World War 2. Many innocent civilians were incinerated. Having visited the Hiroshima Peace Park, I feel strongly about this.
Nuclear weapons will almost definitely be used if Bush decides to go to war with Iran, resulting in death, destruction and radiation sickness.
Are there any peaceful alternatives?
George Bush could call a conference to appease the Iranian Government. This would provide an opportunity to make peace, and for both sides to discuss peaceful and moral solutions rather that dropping nuclear weapons on each other.
It would also allow for better press for the US in the Middle East. At the moment, America is very unpopular in the Middle East, and this gives rise to lots of hostility. However, if a conference was held, hostility will decrease, and therefore the risk of war will be decreased.
LEARN MORE:
Open Democracy has many articles on this issue, including ‘Iran: War by October?’ by Paul Rogers
Iran resources and comment on Converge
AlJazeera has many articles on the issue, including ‘Iran leader says he’s open to talks’ 11 May 2006
Images from Creative Commons, and thanks to the Peace and Disarmament Centre in Christchurch.
