Beyond The Petrol Pump - Peak Oil And New Zealand
By Omar Hamed
A friend told me earlier this year that he was buying an expensive new car. One that guzzles petrol like there is no tomorrow. I asked if he was out of his mind. I told him that there is no point buying a gas guzzling car now that the end of cheap oil has come. In a couple of years, I said, he will not even be able to afford the petrol for his new car. Needless to say, he bought the car. But now less than twelve months later he is finding it harder and harder to afford the rapidly increasing petrol prices.
Although the price of petrol is estimated to reach $2.00 a litre by Christmas, and with analysts saying this is just the beginning of the price rises, no one should be surprised with the current situation. Matthew Simmons, an adviser to President George Bush, said earlier this year, “Demand is pulling away from supply…and we have to ask whether we have the resources that we think we do. It could be catastrophic if we do not anticipate when peak oil comes.”
Many of you are probably thinking, “what is ‘peak oil’?” Peak oil is when the amount of oil being extracted reaches its highest point and after that it starts to decline. We will not know when peak oil happens until after it has already occurred. There are conflicting opinions on when peak oil will be reached. Some experts say we have already reached it, while others say it will happen in the coming decade. The fact is that in the next few years oil is going to get increasingly scarce. Oil prices are going to keep rising and with this rise will come a rise in the costs of those things which require oil to be manufactured. This includes everything from clothing to food, and from plastic bags to bicycle tyres.
Peak oil will have a huge effect on our society. Because a major part of our economic system is built around oil, running out in the near future is going to have dramatic effects on the way we live. Oil provides 90% of global transport supply and a reliable flow is needed for New Zealand and most other countries economies to continue growing. Because of New Zealand’s location at the bottom of the world, increased oil prices will make transport to and from these islands increasingly expensive.
The move away from a society based around cheap oil to one based around renewable resources and energy conservation is not simply an option; it is an inevitability. Harnessing solar and wind power as well as increased energy efficiency will reduce the possibilities for blackouts down the line. Long queues at the petrol station can be avoided if there is adequate government funding of public transport and cycle infrastructure. Use of plastic packaging can be cut back on dramatically by businesses. Food processed and transported thousands of kilometres from factory to supermarket will cease to be the norm as oil prices hit consumer spending. In a sure sign of things to come a neighbour told me last night that he had sold his four wheel drive the week before. Why? Because the cost of filling his tank with petrol was now costing well over a hundred dollars. Oil free future, here we come. Ready or not.
Links
Richard Heinberg’s Paper presented on November 7th 2005, at the California Leaders Round Table Dialogue on Peak Oil, Climate Change and Business Action; , 2005 in San Francisco.
